As we head into 2020, we want to take an overall look at the market and where we see it heading into the new year. To do this, we consider last year’s numbers and trends as they continue into 2020. Overall, 2019 was a good real estate year in La Plata County. It was slower during the first two quarters and that was largely due to increased interest rates. During the second quarter rates began to drop and that helped give the market some more energy to finish the third and fourth quarters with strong sales numbers. The county overall was up in total sales over last year by just under 1%, and the median home price dropped slightly by only 1/2%. When we break down the market, we see most price points stayed relatively flat, with modest increases or decreases compared to 2018. The exception was the high-end market, which we categorize over $1 million. In 2019 there were 49 sales over $1 million. This surpassed the old record—43 sales in 2005.
Townhome and condo sales stayed strong in 2019, as we predicted they would. Total sales numbers have been consistent over that last 3 years with townhomes and condos accounting for just under 30% of the total market.
My prediction is that 2020 will be another solid year in real estate, but slower than 2019. I anticipate interest rates will be steady throughout the year, hovering in the 3.5% to 4% range for a 30-year fixed mortgage. The median home price will stay very close to where it is now, but I would expect it to drop slightly. I anticipate the same for the total number of sales; they will be close to 2019, but I’d anticipate slightly fewer sales. I believe the $1 million and over market will see a decline; my prediction is by 25-30%, but even with that decline it will still be a historically strong number. I estimate around 35 sales in this market segment.
Each year we like to take a look at these numbers so we know how to anticipate the year ahead. As always, we are available for any questions you may have. We are starting to anticipate the spring selling season, and if you’re curious as to what your home may be worth, please call us for a comparative market analysis. We look forward to another fantastic year in La Plata County real estate and serving Durango and the surrounding areas. Please visit us at one of our open houses this Saturday. 235 Sage View (11-1), 441 Confluence (11-1) and 2339 Forest Ave (2-4).
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