The National Weather Service has released their snowfall forecast for a storm that’s expected to hit Colorado this weekend – and it’s looking like it’ll be a doozy.
For a bit of context, it’s worth noting that the National Weather Service releases three key maps related to potential snowfall – an ‘expected snowfall’ map (80% chance), a ‘high-end amount’ map (10% chance), and a ‘low-end amount’ map (10% chance). This piece takes a look at all three, and it should also be mentioned that current maps only account for 6 p.m. on Thursday through 6 a.m. on Sunday with this storm expected to stretch into the rest of Sunday and potentially Monday. Updated maps depicting a broader picture of this full storm should be released on Friday.
In the ‘most likely’ scenario as depicted on the ‘expected snowfall’ map, the San Juan mountains in southwest Colorado get up to four feet of snow, with a few select areas having potential for even more. Meanwhile, the central mountains and those in the area of Aspen hit their max in the 12 to 18 inch range, though most peaks outside of the southwestern region should see between three to six inches.
The ‘high-end amount’ map, is where things get really interesting.
In this scenario, a wider range of peaks in the Central Mountains and Aspen area end up in that 12-plus inch-range, while the southwest gets a lot more snow.
This high-end map shows a larger portion of the San Juans getting between 48 and 60 inches of snow, with a few select peaks (seen on the map below as the very small dots of darker purple) having potential to get even more than that.
It’s also worth noting that this high-end scenario shows flurries falling in over half of the state, including the Front Range. While this won’t likely be enough snow to result in accumulation in places like Denver and Colorado Springs, it could result in slick conditions on roads.
As far as the low-end amount forecast goes, the southwest should still get 24-plus inches of snow on some peaks. Totals drop off quite a bit in this scenario in the Central Mountain region, with most peaks topping out in that six-to-eight-inch range.
Joel Gratz of OpenSnow is expecting Purgatory and Silverton to get about 25 inches throughout the storm, with Wolf Creek looking at 24. He also mentions that the next chance for more snow will be October 26 through 31 (Find the full OpenSnow breakdown here).
This incoming snowstorm is good news for the state’s winter slopesports enthusiasts, as many are hopeful for an October opening. While Central Mountain spots like Arapahoe Basin, Loveland, and Keystone are often the first to get lifts spinning, this snowstorm may make early openings more possible for those in the southwestern part of the state this year. Wolf Creek could be a good candidate, as they’ve been known to open early on years of good snow in the past.
Post courtesy of DenverGazette.com.
