This past Wednesday night, the Wells Group hosted the 17^th Annual Real Estate Forecast. This is a fantastic opportunity to take stock of the real estate market, and evaluate trends. We consider last year’s predictions and how the year actualized, and we look ahead to the next year with predictions on the real estate market.

John Wells presents while Bob Allen and Jim Wotkyns huddle at the 2017 Real Estate Forecast/photo by Sam Rose

In case you missed the event, here are a few highlights, starting with a look back to 2016.  You will see The Wells Group’s predictions below, but we thought it would be fun to add some of our own! For the full forecast, click here:

The 2017 Real Estate Forecast, sponsored by The Wells Group

Here are Max & Don’s  (from The Durango Team’s) three predictions for the year:

1. Town home sales and new town home projects will increase this year. As the in-town inventory of single family homes remains low, this will push demand to townhomes because of supply and lower cost. we estimate a 10% increase in the number of townhome sales in 2017.
2. Condo sales will increase in 2017 as well, our prediction is by 8%. We saw a 37% increase in Condo sales in 2015 and a 2% on 2016 year. This is due to the affordability of Condos and more flexible financing especially when the condo is being purchased as a primary residence. We would estimate a 15% increase in the number of condo sales in 2017.
3. Property taxes have been historically low throughout the County.  Many areas are seeing significant increases in their mil levy due to passing the school initiative.  Buyers will see many areas where property taxes are double compared to the City of Durango, and we will see buyers make decisions on locations with lower tax consequences.

Predictions for the 2016 real estate market:

• We predicted 1390 residential units (5%) increase. The number was flat with less than a 1% increase; however, ALL sales were up in La Plata County (this means land, commercial, farm, and ranch.)

• We predicted increased sales in luxury properties. There was an increase of 24%. Sales over $1 Million increased from 24 to 31 percent. Already in 2017 we have 7 sales with 6 under contract/pending.

• Continued Strong Demand for Commercial Properties for owner/users and investors searching for more stable investment and return. This continues to be a strong sector, with minimal commercial income properties and more potential investors than supply.

• Affordable/Attainable Housing. This still remains a big question in our area with rising building costs. Potential solutions include mobile home parks and higher density apartments, townhomes, or condos. We have seen this occur in the apartment category. Perhaps soon tiny homes will also be a solution.

Predictions for the 2017 Real Estate Market:

• Inventory Challenges. We predict this will be an issue in the under $500,000 market county wide.

• Increase in median price in all homes of La Plata County.

• More homes for sale in Forest Lakes.

• Interest rates will not impact the market unless raised above 5% for residential mortgages.

• Tourism will increase again

• There will be a higher number of baby boomers from the Front Range who migrate to La Plata County. They will sell their homes with substantial equity due to appreciation and look for a lifestyle change.

• There will be a higher number of luxury home sales.

• More recreational ranch sales in Southwest Colorado.

Additionally, we expect the city of Durango to encourage higher residential density. We also expect increases in fees and taxes on real estate to attempt to fund shortfalls in government entities, and we expect the “Amazon Affect” to impact Durango. We expect less demand for commercial property (especially downtown Durango) as retail shopping moves to more of an online presence. We expect Durango’s restaurant and entertainment industry to grow as tourism again increases.

As you can see, La Plata County real estate in 2016 proved to be a great year, and the start of 2017 looks the same. The above information is an overall summary. We would love to discuss any questions you may have or any particular area in further depth.  Article is provided by Don and Max of The Durango Team, your source for Durango Real Estate info! For more information visit: thedurangoteam.com